Navigating Through Uncertainty with the 3A Framework with Sam Sivarajan

Sam Sivarajan: 00:01

Welcome back to the Future Ready Advisor, the podcast that helps financial professionals navigate uncertainty with clarity and confidence. I'm your host, Sam Sivarajan. This is part two of my solo series on navigating uncertainty. If you haven't already listened to part one, I encourage you to check out episode 44 titled, From Panic to Plan: How Advisors Can Navigate Change with Clarity and Confidence.

Sam Sivarajan: 00:30

In that episode, I introduced the CASE foundation, the four pillars that create a solid foundation for navigating uncertainty. Today, we're building on that foundation with the execution framework that brings it all to life.

Sam Sivarajan: 00:43

If you've been keeping up with the headlines lately, you know uncertainty hasn't exactly taken a vacation. Just this past month, we've seen market volatility spike again on inflation concerns. Tech layoffs making headlines despite strong overall employment numbers, and central banks sending mixed signals about the path of interest rates.

Sam Sivarajan: 01:02

And it's not just financial markets feeling the pressure. Companies are revising strategic plans, reconsidering hiring decisions, and postponing capital investments. On a personal level, many of our clients are questioning everything from their travel plans to their retirement timelines.

Sam Sivarajan: 01:18

The reality is that uncertainty isn't a passing phase. It's our new normal. And while we can't eliminate it, we can develop the capacity to navigate through it effectively.

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Uncertainty is simply one form of change, perhaps the most challenging form because it's unplanned and often unwelcome. The framework we're discussing today helps you master all types of change, whether expected or unexpected.

Sam Sivarajan: 01:42

In part one, episode 44, I shared the CASE foundation—the solid foundation that helps advisors and leaders prepare for uncertainty:

Control – know what's yours to change.

Align – define what truly matters.

Span – balance the present and the future.

Establish – measure what truly matters.

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Today, we're taking the next step. Because having a strong foundation is essential—but it's not enough. You also need a dynamic system for executing through uncertainty, for taking meaningful action even when the path isn't entirely clear.

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That's where the 3A framework comes in. It's the execution engine that transforms preparation into progress:

Assess – assess the situation objectively.

Act – then act decisively.

Adapt – adapt pragmatically.

Sam Sivarajan: 02:29

I developed this framework through years of working with business leaders, investment teams, and financial advisors navigating complex, uncertain environments. It's not theoretical—it's been battle-tested in real-world situations where the stakes were high and the answers weren’t obvious.

Sam Sivarajan: 02:45

As we explore each element today, I'll share specific applications for both you as an advisor and for your clients as investors. Because the 3A framework isn’t just a professional tool—it’s a life skill that helps anyone move forward with confidence in uncertain times.

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So let’s dive in and explore how to execute through uncertainty with clarity and purpose.

[Section: Assess – Seeing Clearly]

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The first pillar of execution is Assess: assessing the situation objectively.

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This might sound straightforward, but it's actually where many of us stumble. Our brains are wired with cognitive biases that distort our perception—especially when we’re under pressure.

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We see what we expect to see. We overweight information that confirms our existing beliefs. And we miss critical data that doesn't fit our mental models.

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A fascinating experiment called the invisible gorilla demonstrates this perfectly. Participants were asked to watch a video of people passing a basketball and count the number of passes.

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During the video, a person in a gorilla suit walked across the court, stopped in the middle, pounded their chest, and then walked off.

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Now, remarkably, about 50% of viewers completely missed the gorilla. Why?

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Because they were so focused on counting passes that their brains filtered out what seemed irrelevant—even something as obvious as a gorilla in the middle of the action.

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As advisors, we face our own invisible gorillas. We might be so focused on portfolio performance that we miss critical changes in a client’s life circumstances.

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Or we might be so attached to a particular economic outlook that we discount contradictory evidence.

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Let me share a personal lesson. At one wealth management business I was leading, we kept pursuing a public company CEO as a private wealth client—meeting after meeting, but still no progress.

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Why? We were seeing through our own biases—blinded by assumptions about who made decisions.

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Then one of my investment counselors stepped back and saw the situation clearly.

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She realized that it was the CEO’s wife who made the personal financial decisions.

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This shift in perspective won us a billionaire client—all because she saw the situation as it was, not as we assumed it to be.

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This experience taught me a powerful lesson about cognitive bias. We had been so focused on the CEO—the obvious decision maker in business—that we completely missed the actual decision maker for personal wealth.

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Our preconceptions about power dynamics and decision making had created a blind spot that nearly cost us a transformative client relationship.

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So how do we overcome these natural biases and develop a clearer picture?

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The answer lies in using structured frameworks that force us to look at situations from multiple perspectives.

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One of the most powerful tools I’ve found is the Six Thinking Hats method developed by Edward de Bono. It systematically explores different modes of thinking.

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One, the white hat—where you focus on facts and data, such as market conditions and client information.

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Two, the red hat—where you acknowledge your emotions and intuitions, such as client fears or market sentiment.

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Three, the black hat—you identify risks and potential problems, such as regulatory challenges or market threats.

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Four, the yellow hat—where you explore opportunities and benefits, such as new services or growth potential.

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Five, the green hat—you generate creative solutions, innovative client experiences, or unique approaches, for example.

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And finally, number six, the blue hat—you manage the entire thinking process through strategic oversight or decision protocols.

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Let me share how this framework transformed one advisor’s approach during a market correction.

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Michael had a client—a retired executive—who called in a panic as their portfolio dropped 15%.

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Michael’s initial instinct was to dive straight into the data, reassuring her with historical market recovery statistics and portfolio stress tests.

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But using the Six Thinking Hats approach, he took a more comprehensive view.

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With the white hat, he examined portfolio allocation, withdrawal rates, and market conditions.

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With the red hat, he acknowledged both the client’s emotional distress and his own anxiety about keeping her as a client.

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With the black hat, he identified specific vulnerabilities in her financial plan if the correction deepened.

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With the yellow hat, he spotted opportunities to rebalance at advantageous prices.

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With the green hat, he developed a creative communication approach using visual scenarios.

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And with the blue hat, he maintained focus on her long-term goals rather than short-term performance.

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This comprehensive assessment led to a completely different client conversation—one that addressed both the technical aspects of her situation and the emotional reality she was experiencing.

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Rather than simply reassuring her that markets would recover, Michael helped her understand exactly where she stood relative to her goals, and what specific actions made sense given her unique circumstances.

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The result wasn’t just a preserved client relationship—it was a deepened one.

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The client later told Michael, “That was the first time I felt like an advisor truly understood both my financial situation and how I felt about it.”

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For advisors, the assessment phase is about developing what I call strategic empathy—the ability to see your client situations with both analytical precision and emotional intelligence.

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This means challenging your own assumptions about markets, client needs, and practice management.

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Creating structured decision processes that counteract biases.

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Soliciting different perspectives—especially from team members with different thinking styles.

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Documenting your assessment process so you can learn from both successes and mistakes.

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And developing the habit of asking, “What am I missing?” before finalizing important decisions.

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For investors, effective assessment requires similar discipline.

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Help them distinguish between market noise and meaningful signals.

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Recognize their emotional reactions to volatility without being controlled by them.

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Evaluate their financial situations objectively rather than comparatively.

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Understand the difference between temporary market fluctuations and permanent loss of capital.

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And develop realistic expectations about both risks and opportunities.

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The key insight about assessment isn’t that we should gather more information.

It’s that we need structured ways to see the information we already have more clearly.

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By expanding our perspective and challenging our assumptions,

we develop the situational clarity that makes effective action possible.

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Before we move on, I want to share one practical exercise you can use with clients

to improve their assessment capabilities. I call it the Three Perspectives Exercise.

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When facing an important financial decision, ask them to deliberately consider it

from three financial viewpoints:

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Number one – as their current self: that is, their immediate needs and concerns.

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Number two – as their future self: how does this align with their long-term goals and legacy? What would their future self think about the current decision?

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And number three – as a trusted advisor to someone they care about:

what is the objective perspective they would give to somebody else

who came to them for advice?

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This simple exercise helps counteract temporal biases and emotional reactions, creating space for more thoughtful assessment.

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I’ve seen it transform how clients approach everything from retirement planning to market corrections.

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Number two: Act decisively.

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The second pillar of execution in the 3A framework is acting decisively.

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This is perhaps the most challenging aspect of navigating uncertainty.

When the stakes are high and the path isn't completely clear,

our natural instinct is often to wait—for more data, more clarity, more certainty.

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But in rapidly changing environments, perfect information is rarely available.

And waiting too long can mean missing critical opportunities.

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I'm reminded of Alan Mulally’s bold decision at Ford in 2006.

When he became CEO, Ford was facing a projected $17 billion loss.

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Within weeks, he made what many considered a reckless move:

mortgaging every significant Ford asset—their factories, patents,

even their iconic blue oval logo—to secure almost $24 billion in loans.

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Industry experts were skeptical. But Mulally understood something profound

about leadership in uncertain times:

thoughtful action trumps perfect analysis.

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These funds allowed Ford to innovate and restructure

before the: 2008

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When the crisis sent shockwaves through the automotive industry,

Ford was the only major U.S. automaker that didn't require a government bailout.

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Mulally’s decision wasn’t impulsive—it was calculated

based on the best information available at the time.

But it required the courage to act without complete certainty about the outcome.

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For financial advisors, this same principle applies.

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Consider the March 2020 market plunge during the early days of the pandemic.

As markets fell 30% in record time, many advisors froze—

waiting for clarity about the virus impact, government response,

or the market bottom before making portfolio adjustments.

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Others took thoughtful, purposeful action despite the uncertainty.

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They didn’t try to time the exact market bottom,

but they did implement systematic rebalancing,

tax-loss harvesting, and strategic Roth conversions

that created significant value for their clients.

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The key difference wasn’t that the action-oriented advisors had better information.

No one knew how the pandemic would unfold.

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The difference was their approach to decision-making under uncertainty.

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This brings us to a powerful tool for balancing decisiveness with thoughtfulness:

the pre-mortem analysis.

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Pioneered by psychologist Gary Klein,

this approach helps identify potential pitfalls before they become realities.

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Here’s how it works: before implementing a major decision—

whether it’s a new service offering, a client recommendation,

or a business model change—imagine it’s one year from now

and the decision you’ve implemented has failed spectacularly.

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Then work backward.

What went wrong?

What assumptions failed?

What risks did we underestimate?

What could we have done differently?

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By asking and answering these questions beforehand,

you anticipate potential problems before they occur—

and you strengthen your plan while maintaining the courage to move forward.

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I once worked with an advisor—let’s call her Elena—who used this technique

when considering a significant business pivot.

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After years of success with the traditional brokerage model,

she was contemplating a shift toward comprehensive wealth management,

with a focus on younger business owner clients.

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Before implementing the change, Elena and her team conducted a pre-mortem:

“It’s one year from now, and our new model has completely failed.”

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This exercise revealed several critical tasks they hadn’t fully considered.

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Their team lacked expertise in certain planning areas the new model would require.

Their technology wasn’t configured to support digital channels younger clients preferred.

And their messaging wasn’t clear about how existing clients would benefit from the transition.

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By identifying these potential failure points in advance, Elena didn’t abandon her vision—

she strengthened it.

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She developed a phased implementation plan that included team training,

technology upgrades, and client communication strategies.

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The transition succeeded because she had the wisdom to anticipate problems—

and the courage to move forward anyway.

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For advisors, the action phase requires what I call calibrated courage—

the ability to move forward thoughtfully in the face of uncertainty.

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This means:

- developing decision rules that clarify when you have enough information to act,

- creating reversible experiments rather than all-or-nothing commitments, establishing clear success metrics for each initiative,

- building in regular review points to assess progress and adjust course if needed,

- and celebrating thoughtful action even when outcomes aren't perfect.

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For investors, effective action requires similar discipline.

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Help them recognize when analysis has become a form of procrastination.

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Break significant financial decisions into smaller, more manageable steps.

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Understand the cost of inaction, not just the risks of action.

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Develop contingency plans that provide psychological safety for moving forward.

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Focus on the process of good decision-making rather than guaranteeing outcomes.

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The key insight about action isn’t that we should move more quickly—

it’s that we should move more purposefully.

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By combining careful analysis with the courage to advance despite uncertainty,

we transform potential paralysis into meaningful progress.

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One practical approach I’ve found extremely valuable

is what’s called the Minimum Viable Decision approach.

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Instead of trying to solve complex challenges with single, comprehensive actions,

break them down into the smallest meaningful steps that move you forward.

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For instance, rather than creating a complete succession plan in one giant effort,

identify the one decision you can make today

that creates the most options for tomorrow.

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This might be having an initial conversation with a potential successor,

creating a valuation methodology,

or documenting key client relationships.

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Each minimum viable decision reduces uncertainty incrementally,

while building momentum toward your larger goal.

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It’s a powerful antidote to the paralysis

that often accompanies complex, high-stakes choices.

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Number three: Adapt pragmatically.

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The final pillar of the 3A framework is adapting pragmatically.

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This might be the most crucial capability in our uncertain world.

Plans rarely unfold exactly as we expect,

and clinging rigidly to predetermined paths

often leads to missed opportunities or unnecessary risks.

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Yet there's a delicate balance to maintain.

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Adaptation isn’t about abandoning your strategy at the first sign of challenge,

nor is it about chasing every new trend or market movement.

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It’s about maintaining strategic direction

while adjusting tactical execution based on real-time feedback and changing conditions.

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No company exemplifies this principle better than Microsoft

under Satya Nadella’s leadership.

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When Nadella became CEO in 2014, Microsoft was struggling

to maintain relevance in a mobile-first, cloud-driven world.

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Rather than clinging to the Windows-centric approach

that had defined the company for decades,

Nadella orchestrated a remarkable pivot toward cloud services

and cross-platform compatibility.

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What makes this story so instructive

isn’t just the strategic shift itself,

but how Nadella implemented it.

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He didn’t abandon Microsoft’s core capabilities or identity.

Instead, he adapted the company’s approach

to leverage those strengths in a changing technology landscape.

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Microsoft’s transformation wasn’t a single dramatic event,

but a series of adaptive moves:

making Office available on iOS and Android,

investing heavily in Azure cloud services,

embracing open-source development,

and cultivating a culture of continuous learning.

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As financial advisors, we face our own adaptation challenges.

Market conditions shift, client needs evolve, regulatory requirements change,

and technology transforms service delivery.

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The most successful practices aren’t necessarily those with the best initial strategy—

but those that adapt most effectively as conditions change.

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One powerful framework for building this adaptive capability

is what psychologist Karl Weick calls the small wins approach.

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Rather than implementing massive changes that create resistance and risk,

break adaptations into manageable steps

that build momentum and confidence.

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One example that perfectly illustrates this principle

urgh Steelers had in the late: 1970

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Under their coach, they had something like 90 wins and 30 losses.

Against better teams, the Steelers only won about half their games.

But against worse teams, they won almost 98% of the time.

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The Steelers became champions not by doing the hard things,

but by doing the small, simple things well—and consistently.

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I once worked with an advisory team transitioning

from a commission-based brokerage model

to a comprehensive wealth management approach.

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Instead of attempting a complete overnight transformation,

they identified a sequence of small, achievable steps.

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They added one financial planning element to existing client reviews.

They developed expertise in one new planning area each quarter.

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They gradually adjusted their client acquisition process

to focus on planning-oriented relationships.

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They implemented a phased transition to a fee-based compensation structure.

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Each success built confidence and capability—making the next step easier.

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Within two years, they had completely transformed their business model—

without the disruption and risk of a big-bang approach.

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For advisors, this adaptation phase requires what I call strategic fluidity—

the ability to adjust your approach while maintaining your purpose.

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This means:

creating systematic feedback loops that provide early warning of changing conditions,

developing multiple options for achieving key objectives rather than single rigid plans,

building team capabilities that enable quick pivots when necessary,

conducting regular practice assessments that identify potential adaptation needs,

and fostering a culture that values learning and evolution over being right the first time.

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For investors, effective adaptation requires similar flexibility.

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Help them recognize when conditions have changed significantly enough

to warrant plan adjustments.

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Distinguish between normal market volatility

and fundamental shifts that require response.

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Update financial plans based on life transitions—not just market events.

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Maintain core financial principles while adjusting tactical implementation.

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And view adaptation as a strength,

not as a failure of their original approach.

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The key insight about adaptation isn’t that we should change constantly—

it’s that we should change thoughtfully.

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By developing systems that help us detect meaningful shifts

and adjusting accordingly,

we transform uncertainty from a threat

into an opportunity for growth.

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One practical technique for building an adaptive capability

is what I call Scenario Planning Lite.

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Traditional scenario planning can be complex and time-consuming,

but this simplified version can be implemented in under an hour.

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Identify one key uncertainty in your business or client situation.

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Envision three possible scenarios:

the expected case, the upside case, and the downside case.

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For each scenario, identify one early indicator

that would signal it’s unfolding.

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Then develop one concrete action you would take

in response to each scenario.

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Now, this lightweight approach doesn’t try to predict every possibility

or create comprehensive response plans.

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Instead, it builds the mental muscles needed for effective adaptation

by engaging with potential futures in a structured way.

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As we bring this exploration of the 3A framework to a close,

let’s reflect on the journey we’ve just taken.

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We’ve examined how Assess helps us see clearly despite our cognitive biases...

how Act enables us to move forward despite imperfect information...

and how Adapt allows us to adjust course as conditions change.

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Together with the CASE foundation from part one,

these elements create a powerful system for navigating uncertainty.

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CASE gives us the stable platform.

3A gives us the dynamic capability.

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Control – know what’s yours to change.

Align – define what truly matters.

Span – balance the present and the future.

Establish – measure what matters.

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Then the 3A Framework:

Assess – assess your situation objectively.

Act – act decisively and purposefully.

Adapt – adapt pragmatically as the situation warrants.

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But frameworks only help when they’re applied.

So let me leave you with three specific actions

you can take this week to begin implementing the 3A Framework in your practice.

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First, choose one significant decision you’re currently facing.

Apply the Six Thinking Hats method we discussed,

deliberately exploring it from multiple perspectives.

Notice what new insights emerge when you look beyond your default thinking mode.

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Second, identify one minimum viable decision you can make today—

a small, meaningful step that reduces uncertainty

and creates forward momentum in an important area of your practice.

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Third, conduct a quick Scenario Planning Lite exercise

for one key uncertainty affecting your business or clients.

Envisioning multiple possibilities and potential responses

will strengthen your adaptive muscles,

even if those specific scenarios never materialize.

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Remember: navigating uncertainty isn’t about having perfect foresight.

It’s about developing the capacity to move forward wisely despite limited information.

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The 3A Framework doesn’t eliminate uncertainty.

It gives you the tools to transform it from a source of anxiety

into a catalyst for growth.

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I explore these concepts in greater depth in my upcoming book,

Change Mastery: How to Lead, Adapt, and Thrive in a World of Disruption.

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The book provides detailed implementation guides, decision tools,

and practical exercises designed specifically for professionals

facing complex, uncertain environments.

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The book launch is planned for September 2025.

And if you’d like early access, behind-the-scenes content,

and special launch offers,

please visit https://lp.samsivarajan.com/changemastery

to join our insider list. I’ll include this link in the show notes.

Sam Sivarajan: 25:04

I hope this episode has given you valuable insights

for executing through uncertainty with greater confidence and clarity.

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Tune into the next episode for further insights from expert guests.

Until then, this is Sam Sivarajan with The Future Ready Advisor.

Thank you for listening.